It's a good day, @MarkDionne2

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees - April 1, 2013 | MLB.com BOS Recap: 

Ellsbury via redsox.com

NEW YORK -- They were timely at the plate, aggressive on the bases and clutch on the mound. In other words, the Red Sox looked very much like a new team on Monday while notching a satisfying 8-2 Opening Day victory over the rival Yankees in the Bronx.

Guess who I'm predicting will win the 2013 World Series?

Hint: you shouldn't need a hint.

Election Night 2012: The long march to an Obama victory just ended!

How about that Todd Akin concession speech? God, faith, you built that, blah, blah, blah. He couldn't shovel the theocratic nonsense fast enough. Did he ever concede in the midst of that blizzard of Tea Party bullet points and buzzwords? Good riddance.

Gack ... NC just went red per MSNBC.

• NC for Romney (This was my riskiest call for Obama and now I don't get to brag about what skilled prognosticator I am. Dangit. Since it looks like Florida will for Obama, my best brag might be I'm leaning sub-par. Which is still better than Karl Rove, who makes a lot of money being even more wrong than me.)

Here's one where I'm right though just coming in:

• IA for Obama

And here it is just now:

• OH for Obama! And we're done. 

What a relief.

Election Night 2012: Too early to assess all the picks ...

... but so far I'm 5 for 6. Admittedly, these were some of the less difficult picks that I had relatively high confidence in:

• MI for Obama
• WI for Obama
• PA for Obama (Romney and  was deluded to think he could steal this one.)
• CT Senate - Murphy (D) defeated McMahon (R) 
• MA Senate - Warren (D) defeated Brown (R) -- Woot!
• IN Senate - Donnelly (D) defeated Mourdock (R) -- Excellent! I got it wrong but what a relief!

That Warren call just came in and bolstered my spirits. That is a key win for progressives.

And even more recently, I'm wrong on Mourdock, who I thought Hoosiers might straight-party vote in along with Romney. 

Based on early returns, it looks like I'm going be wrong on NC (which was my boldest pick for Obama) and FL (where I thought Rick Scott would manage to scumbag a narrow victory for Romney). As much as this would damage my predictor credibility, it's a better outcome than I'd dare to hope for.

I'm thinking some of these 'too close to calls' will start getting called soon so going to break from typing and let a few play out ... 

2012 Election Predictions: The Other Contested Seats

With the electoral college predictions out of the way, turning next to my predictions for some key Congressional races ...

Warren will be our biggest win.

Senate

MA: The race for the old Ted Kennedy seat currently held by Scott Brown is the one I'm most concerned with, so I'll start there. Elizabeth Warren should be on her way to a landslide victory, but apparently that race is still close because being a qualified, intelligent, dedicated public servant isn't as much of a leg up as you'd think when running against a half-wit, race-baiting, self-aggrandizing toady for the radical right whose chief qualifications for public office seem to be that he drives a pick up truck and is considered handsome by the ladies -- the ladies he'd like to ensure have no say in their reproductive health. 

I think Brown damaged his chances with voters of slightly below average intelligence and up, none of whom should have been considering him anyways, by sending his thugs out to get filmed doing the tomahawk chop and mouth-breathing his way through the debates, trying to get a rise out of the rubes by playing up his disdain for intellectuals and doubling down on the "she's a fake Native American" whine. It may be a photo finish, but I think Warren will pull this one out and the seat will go back to blue.

Prediction: Warren (D)

CT: Next up is the open seat in Connecticut which pits Chris Murphy against what has to be one of the weakest Senate candidates either of the major parties has ever put up in Linda McMahon. This is retiring weasel Joe Lieberman's seat, so it will be extra sweet to have a Democrat in this seat again. I know almost nothing about Murphy but, assuming he is not currently being investigated for an especially heinous crime, I can't believe the people of my home state will elect McMahon.

Prediction: Murphy (D) 

Having lived in Wisconsin for five years, I still follow the Badgers and Wisconsin politics. Tommy Thompson, who enjoyed tremendous goodwill as Governor has utterly and completely shit the bed in a way that only a former member of the Bush administration could. He's looks like a sad, desperate old man willing betray any vestige of principle for a last grab at power. The more his campaign has descended into lies and attacks, the more he isolates himself with the adult diaper-wearing wing of the Tea Party. I think Tammy Baldwin will be a strong Senator and serve Wisconsin, and the nation, well. 

Prediction: Baldwin (D)

MT: The contest between Tester and Rehberg in Montana isn't getting a lot of coverage, but it's tight and the Republican is from the House Creation Science, Climate Denialism, and Promotion of HooDoo Committee which features other noted Certified Geniuses™ Todd "The female body can shut that whole thing down" Akin, Paul "Science is from the pits of Hell!" Broun, Roscoe "I agree with Akin" Bartlett, and Randy "Pray the tornadoes away" Neugebauer. Tester, I fear, will be a victim of Citizens United and the Supreme Court's War on States' Rights When It Suits The Plutocrat Agenda.
Prediction: Rehberg (R)

IN: If Mourdock hadn't gone all "Rape is a gift from God," he probably would have won comfortably. Sadly, Hoosiers don't seem fazed by his woman-hating love of rape zygotes and he will now only win by slight margin. Indiana is going to have a lot to answer for if they don't get their heads on straight. 

Prediction: Mourdock (R)

MO: As long as we're talking about Republicans with wacky ideas about rape and the female half of the species, let's get the Akin/McCaskill race out of the way. I don't know if this one still considered a toss-up or not but McCaskill should win this seat after Akin managed to keep the race closer than anyone would have expected by keeping his position on "legitimate rape" quiet until he just couldn't hold it in any longer. McCaskill should win this one comfortably.

Prediction: McCaskill (D)

House

Just as I expect the Senate will keep it's Democratic majority, I expected the House will stay red, and am therefore so disgusted I can't bring myself to pay much attention to it. I'm going to stick with NC instead of trying guess about races in other states where a coin flip is likelier to be a better predictor than I am. Down ticket here in NC, I was actually more concerned with the NCGA contests and the court races, so you might want to keep that coin handy anyways.

We have a House seat where the forecast is shaky. NC-7 could well go the GOP challenger David Rouzer. This has been a blue seat for decades and it'll be a shame if McIntyre can't hold on. I'm picking McIntyre by a nose in this one.

Prediction: 
NC-7 McIntyre (D)

2012 Presidential Election Fearless Prediction Time!

2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College

C-Dog Forecast

Just going on-the-record with my predictions. While I think the popular vote may be closer than the electoral college vote, I'm predicting a more-comfortable-than-many-will-have-guessed victory for Obama. I'm not overly comfortable with my NC, VA & WI predictions ... but, in the spirit of being fearless, I'll just take my lumps if I'm wrong.

Here's (what passes for) my thought process as I made my selections:

Selective memory makes me awesome at predictions! (I got the Pacquiao fight right.)

ESPN - Streak for the Cash - cdogzilla Entry

Let's not look into my history of predictions. Just bask in the small glory of this correct long shot pick against heavily favored Pacquiao.

Thanks, terribly corrupt boxing judges, for awarding the fight to the clear loser so I could win!

Outstanding interview with Amber E. aka @rare_basement

Funny Ladies of Twitter: An interview with Amber E. aka @rare_basement ›› Princess Lasertron:

Image via Princess Lasertron

Retail is exhausting but I can’t think of anything else that would be any less exhausting. I don’t think I’d want to get paid to write because I don’t know how to write and I would have panic attacks until deadlines and then disappear from. I guess my ideal job would be winning the lottery and sitting on my ass all day, watching tv. I’m really lazy. I will do what’s necessary to survive but if work wasn’t, I wouldn’t do any. I would like to go to college someday, maybe to learn how to write, but I’m not sure student loan debt is something I would be able to deal with in the future.

Remember how they made a show out of that Sh*t My Dad Says twitter account and it was awful? That's a shame because Amber's feed would make a great sitcom and all that Let's-Make-a-TV-Show-Based-on-a-Twitter-Account money has probably dried up. It could be the show Whitney should have been.

Remember how great Roseanne was when it was great? Though she's not another Roseanne Barr, she's got something of that energy -- I'm just not putting my finger quite on it. There's something Seinfeldian in her tweet DNA, too. If you could mush up just the right parts of prime Seinfeld and Roseanne, with an eye towards the best stuff on Adult Swim, then I think you'd be on the way to making the definitive twitter-based TV show using the @rare_basement stream as your starting point.

Cartoon Network: make this happen.

#TenYearsLater Fondly Recalling Opening Day 2002

cryptonaut-in-exile: Opening Day

It is traditional for me to declare, each and every year, that this is going to be our year. After the 2011 epic collapse, the loss of Tito, the retirement of Wakefield, the current situation at shortstop, etc. I'm a little nervous about making my declaration ... but I will. Here I am (not so fearlessly) predicting the Red Sox will win the 2012 World Series.

Ten Years Later: I Was Right (That One Time)

cryptonaut-in-exile: Fearless Prediction:

Maybe it's because it was Senior Night. Maybe it's due to my forbidden love of Sue Bird . Maybe it's because I'm slightly loaded. Maybe it's the way Bonedaddy made an inspired pick of the Patriots weeks before their Superbowl win. Whatever it is, I'm predicting now that UCONN will go 39-0 and win the National Championship in San Antonio this year.

They did. I guess you didn't exactly have to be "fearless" to make that prediction though.

Linsanity was foretold?

Friendfeed's Jimminy has prompted me to break out the ff embedder after a long hiatus:

We don't need, but seem to like anyways, some stinkin' (MLB.com) badges.

My Badges | MLB.com: Community

Predicting I will get 2 of these today: Beckett and Ellsbury. Paps won't pitch because there won't be a save situation.

Ten Years Later: When Will We See An Openly Gay Male Pro Athlete? (Still waiting ...)

cryptonaut-in-exile: When Will We See An Openly Gay Male Pro Athlete?: 

Billy Bean, via 2003 article in In These Times

A decade ago I might have guessed we were on the verge of having a "gay Jackie Robinson." I probably would've predicted we were, at most, 2 years away from the day gay players would be comfortable coming out of the closet. And yet, here we are ten years later and it hasn't happened yet. Marriage equality is gaining wide acceptance, Savage's 'It Gets Better Campaign' is drawing huge support, Will and Grace has been off the air for years, but there's Glee ... is it really still that bad in world of sports?

Sadly, it probably is.

It's long past time for straight players to start speaking publicly about about how they would support a gay teammate. They shouldn't be waiting for the question, they should be bringing it up, encouraging the discussion and forcing the homophobes in the locker rooms to paint themselves into a corner so the rest of us can know who the bad guys are and not buy their jerseys, not ask for their autographs, etc.

I'll make the prediction now that we are at least two years away from an openly gay athelete playing in one of the big four professional sports (I still count hockey), but not more than five.

Related: While this post was in scheduled status waiting for the ten years to pass since my original post, Rick Welts, an executive with the Phoenix Suns came out. Also, Charles Barkley had something sensible to say. He must not have been on TV. And then Frank Deford weighed in. This topic sure has been heating up ... maybe my two to five year prediction is too conservative now? 

Of hedgehogs and foxes (Or, some pundits are much better at punditry than others)

Scoring the pundits — Crooked Timber: 

Check the guy's track record. Krugman nails it.

A working paper by students at Hamilton College out yesterday has the laudable aim of auditing the predictions made by political pundits in order to see whether they are any use or not. Unsurprisingly, it finds that Paul Krugman is the most useful columnist and that a bunch of hacks I’ve never heard of are the worst (it also, wonderfully, gives the success formula for prognostication as “avoid law school and adopt a liberal philosophy).

No prognostication without accountability!

Ni hao, Second World status. (IMF forecasts it will take five years for China's economy to surpass America's.)

IMF bombshell: Age of America nears end Brett Arends' ROI - MarketWatch: 

For the first time, the international organization has set a date for the moment when the “Age of America” will end and the U.S. economy will be overtaken by that of China.
IMF sees China topping U.S. in 2016

According to the latest IMF official forecasts, China's economy will surpass that of America in real terms in 2016 — just five years from now. Brett Arends looks at the implications for the U.S. dollar and the Treasury market.

And it’s a lot closer than you may think.

According to the latest IMF official forecasts, China’s economy will surpass that of America in real terms in 2016 — just five years from now.

Will our domestic tweeters shift to using the #SecondWorldProblems hashtag on schedule?

Doctor Who Series Six premiere review round up

Well, it sure had a breakneck pace. After a big show, I look to Sepinwall, Ryan, and AV Club to see if the same things struck them as me. Ryan's review isn't up yet, but Sepinwall had:

And even in the midst of all the time puzzle questions, the tears and the creepy monsters, there was still plenty of room for Moffat's brand of madcap comedy, from the opening montage of the Doctor deliberately making a nuisance of himself throughout history so Amy and Rory would keep track of him during his long time away to the Doctor introducing his three operatives as "The Legs" (Amy), "The Nose" (Rory) and "Mrs. Robinson" (River). And, of course, we got a continuation of the running gag about Eleven's fashion sense, though in this case, I think he was right: Stetsons really are cool.

And the AV Club:

OK, here’s where the show eludes me: If The Doctor is 1100-some years when he first reunites with Amy and Rory this episode and 900-some years when he returns, does that mean that this incarnation of The Doctor exists for at least 200 years, presumably having two centuries worth of adventures between those two appearances? And then does it then follow logically that if he does die, the Matt Smith Doctor is the last Doctor? The head spins. Or at least mine does.

I always have an issue with episodes that start by killing a character that structurally, for the integrity of the show, can't stay dead. It takes me out of the episode by forcing me to think, "how is the writer going to undo this?" Which is qualitatively different than wondering, "how are the characters going to get out of this mess?" Matt Smith will not be the last actor to play the Doctor, so there's really no tension in wondering how the show will wind down. So, even though they go to lengths to make him dead and gone, including a viking funeral, he never feels gone. And Moffatt, cheeky bastard, rubs that in your face by having River slap the Doctor when emerges (in a younger, oblivious incarnation) because he knows full well, that pulling that stunt, it's what we want to do to him.

I loved everything else about the episode. The monsters are a great Grays/Weeping Angels/Silurian(!?) hybrid of motives, history, and abilities. The tone was great, Moffatt is a master of shuffling the tarot deck so with each card revealed we go from the Joker, to Death, to the Fates, and enjoy his reading as he goes.

I'm staying spoiler-free and don't dare hazard a guess as to what the nature of the astronaut is for fear of winding up with egg on my face. I can't wait for next week.

Mitt Romney to Birthers: Chill, idiots. (He'll never get the nomination now.)

Mitt Romney: President Obama Was Born in the US: 

Romney is well placed to comment on issues relating to citizenship and the presidency, notes Daniel Freedman at Forbes. The Romney family lawyers probed the issue in the '60s when his father, George Romney, was seeking the Republican nomination. The Michigan governor was born to American parents in a Mormon colony in Chihuahua, Mexico. Romney's opponents labeled him 'Chihuahua George' but his eligibility for the presidency was never seriously challenged, Freedman notes.

He's right, there are real reasons to defeat Obama in 2012; however, I don't think Romney has any real clue what they are, because a President that's (even more) of a Screw-The-Poor-Welfare-For-The-Rich-Lots-Of-Wars-Including-A-War-On-Women-Civil-Rights-Denying-Republican is not what we need.

If Obama's speech later today doesn't flip Ryan's proposal on its ear and lay out a plan that addresses the inequality crisis that is destroying our economy, and our future, and talk about restoring tax rates on the wealthy to pre-George W. Bush levels, and address the unsustainable growth in defense spending, then he is going to be paving the way for whichever nutjob the GOP puts up in 2012 to win, because working people are going to walk away from him, and there's nobody on the left to rally around. 

Part way to vindicating Diet Smith's oft-derided "The nation that controls magnetism controls the universe!" proclamation

How magnets affect the human brain - Boing Boing:

Put a powerful magnet against the side of your head and it can interfere with the neurons working underneath. The technique is being used to treat severe depression, but it can also produce some nifty party tricks.

In the old Dick Tracy cartoon, space travel was envisioned as the key benefit of controlling magnetism, but it looks like mind control might be achieved first. Cue the eerily menacing sci-fi theremin music.

You may not like HOAs, but this is one thing you shouldn't have to worry about.

Free mortgage if you make your home into an Adzookie ad - Apr. 5, 2011:

Realize your dream of living in a billboard! (via CNN)

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Startup advertising firm Adzookie has latched on to a high-profile way to publicize itself: by turning homes into massive billboards.

This business will fail in 3 ... 2 ...

Best sports weekend of the year starts today.

The Official Site of The Boston Red Sox | redsox.com: Homepage

The Final Four is out in Houston with my Huskies playing Saturday, and hopefully again on Monday. The women have their Final Four match-up with Notre Dame on Sunday. But today the Red Sox open the 2011 campaign, also out in Texas, with Lester taking the mound to start what, I can confidently predict (as I have every year since 1978), will be the march to a World Series victory in the fall.  

2011 Barack-etology (I wish I could say this was the worst judgment he's exercised)

2011 NCAA tournament: President Barack Obama: No. 1 seeds will rule in NCAA tournaments - ESPN:

Obama's national champion: Kansas, the top seed in the Southwest, over the Buckeyes, the No. 1 overall seed of the 68-team tournament.

'Kansas has more firepower,' Obama told Katz.