Tuesday, May 3, 2011

Of hedgehogs and foxes (Or, some pundits are much better at punditry than others)

Scoring the pundits — Crooked Timber

Check the guy's track record. Krugman nails it.

A working paper by students at Hamilton College out yesterday has the laudable aim of auditing the predictions made by political pundits in order to see whether they are any use or not. Unsurprisingly, it finds that Paul Krugman is the most useful columnist and that a bunch of hacks I’ve never heard of are the worst (it also, wonderfully, gives the success formula for prognostication as “avoid law school and adopt a liberal philosophy).
No prognostication without accountability!

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