Monday, October 29, 2012

2012 Election Predictions: The Other Contested Seats

With the electoral college predictions out of the way, turning next to my predictions for some key Congressional races ...

Warren will be our biggest win.

MA: The race for the old Ted Kennedy seat currently held by Scott Brown is the one I'm most concerned with, so I'll start there. Elizabeth Warren should be on her way to a landslide victory, but apparently that race is still close because being a qualified, intelligent, dedicated public servant isn't as much of a leg up as you'd think when running against a half-wit, race-baiting, self-aggrandizing toady for the radical right whose chief qualifications for public office seem to be that he drives a pick up truck and is considered handsome by the ladies -- the ladies he'd like to ensure have no say in their reproductive health. 

I think Brown damaged his chances with voters of slightly below average intelligence and up, none of whom should have been considering him anyways, by sending his thugs out to get filmed doing the tomahawk chop and mouth-breathing his way through the debates, trying to get a rise out of the rubes by playing up his disdain for intellectuals and doubling down on the "she's a fake Native American" whine. It may be a photo finish, but I think Warren will pull this one out and the seat will go back to blue.
Prediction: Warren (D)

CT: Next up is the open seat in Connecticut which pits Chris Murphy against what has to be one of the weakest Senate candidates either of the major parties has ever put up in Linda McMahon. This is retiring weasel Joe Lieberman's seat, so it will be extra sweet to have a Democrat in this seat again. I know almost nothing about Murphy but, assuming he is not currently being investigated for an especially heinous crime, I can't believe the people of my home state will elect McMahon.
Prediction: Murphy (D) 

Having lived in Wisconsin for five years, I still follow the Badgers and Wisconsin politics. Tommy Thompson, who enjoyed tremendous goodwill as Governor has utterly and completely shit the bed in a way that only a former member of the Bush administration could. He's looks like a sad, desperate old man willing betray any vestige of principle for a last grab at power. The more his campaign has descended into lies and attacks, the more he isolates himself with the adult diaper-wearing wing of the Tea Party. I think Tammy Baldwin will be a strong Senator and serve Wisconsin, and the nation, well. 
Prediction: Baldwin (D)

MT: The contest between Tester and Rehberg in Montana isn't getting a lot of coverage, but it's tight and the Republican is from the House Creation Science, Climate Denialism, and Promotion of HooDoo Committee which features other noted Certified Geniuses Todd "The female body can shut that whole thing down" Akin, Paul "Science is from the pits of Hell!" Broun, Roscoe "I agree with Akin" Bartlett, and Randy "Pray the tornadoes away" Neugebauer. Tester, I fear, will be a victim of Citizens United and the Supreme Court's War on States' Rights When It Suits The Plutocrat Agenda.
Prediction: Rehberg (R)

IN: If Mourdock hadn't gone all "Rape is a gift from God," he probably would have won comfortably. Sadly, Hoosiers don't seem fazed by his woman-hating love of rape zygotes and he will now only win by slight margin. Indiana is going to have a lot to answer for if they don't get their heads on straight. 
Prediction: Mourdock (R)

MO: As long as we're talking about Republicans with wacky ideas about rape and the female half of the species, let's get the Akin/McCaskill race out of the way. I don't know if this one still considered a toss-up or not but McCaskill should win this seat after Akin managed to keep the race closer than anyone would have expected by keeping his position on "legitimate rape" quiet until he just couldn't hold it in any longer. McCaskill should win this one comfortably.
Prediction: McCaskill (D)


Just as I expect the Senate will keep it's Democratic majority, I expected the House will stay red, and am therefore so disgusted I can't bring myself to pay much attention to it. I'm going to stick with NC instead of trying guess about races in other states where a coin flip is likelier to be a better predictor than I am. Down ticket here in NC, I was actually more concerned with the NCGA contests and the court races, so you might want to keep that coin handy anyways.

We have a House seat where the forecast is shaky. NC-7 could well go the GOP challenger David Rouzer. This has been a blue seat for decades and it'll be a shame if McIntyre can't hold on. I'm picking McIntyre by a nose in this one.

NC-7 McIntyre (D)

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